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The theoretical understanding of Gartner's “hype curve” is an interesting open question in deciding the strategic actions to adopt in presence of an incoming technology. In order to describe the hype behaviour quantitatively, we propose a mathematical approach based on a rate equation, similar to that used to describe quantum level transitions. The model is able to describe the hype curve evolution in many relevant conditions, which can be associated to various market parameters. Different hype curves, describing the time evolution of a new technology market penetration, are then obtained within a single coherent mathematical approach. We have also used our theoretical model to describe the time evolution of the number of scientific publications in different fields of scientific research. Data are well described by our model, so we present a statistical analysis and forecasting potentiality of our approach. We note …
Publication date: 
1 Mar 2017

Paolo Silvestrini, Umberto Amato, Antonio Vettoliere, Stefano Silvestrini, Berardo Ruggiero

Biblio References: 
Volume: 116 Pages: 1-12
Technological Forecasting and Social Change